2026 Is A Thinner Market. Being Slow Or Being Strong Is Your Choice

Short Version

Conversations are more complicated than ever + making personal outbound calls is less and less common = Opportunity!

Looking for a clear plan?
Looking for greater confidence on calls?

Find it HERE on April 30th

OK - buckle up...

Long Version

I’m not ignoring reality.
For sure I try to do so for a few hours each day, but it’s there, everywhere we turn.

This isn't just a slow year.
This is not just about rates.
This is not just about affordability.

This market feels harder because it is harder.
And nothing about our business is getting easier anytime soon.
Sorry to say.

And maybe not for reasons most people think.

For now though, it seems like clients are all just waiting.

They are stuck.

They're not saying no.
They're saying 'we don’t know.'

They're watching:

War headlines
Inflation talk
Oil prices
Rate talk
Housing forecasts
Immigration numbers

One headline says buy now.
Another says maybe wait a bit.
One says all prices are rising.
Another says rents and home prices are falling.

So what do our clients do?

Nothing.

This Is Not Confusion, It’s Overload

Clients are not uninformed.
They're over-informed.

And the data tsunami isn't helping.

Because the data is mixed.
Not Neapolitan mixed. More like a 7-year-old went feral inside a Baskin-Robbins.

It is all 31 flavours, all the toppings, and a giant mess that is hard to look at and even harder to make sense of.

The Numbers Are Telling The Story

Canada’s population fell by ~100,000 people in 2025. That hasn't happened in over 70 years.
70 years!

At the same time, roughly 460,000 temporary residents left the country, immigration slowed materially, and both Ontario and BC saw population declines.

This matters.
These numbers matter.
Because these numbers are not just numbers - they're people... consumers!

And people drive housing demand.

In BC, our government is busy taking credit for reducing rents.
The idiocy of celebrating shrinking economic opportunity and slower future growth seems totally lost on politicians chasing one thing only.

But I digress.

Housing Is Feeling It

Home prices have now fallen for 15 straight months nationally.
Rents across Canada have fallen for 17 straight months, down to a 33-month low.
And yes, inventory sits at a six-year high.

More supply + lower demand = lower prices.

And yet, because Canada is Canada, there are still pockets of strength.

Montreal is rising.
Prairie cities are holding up.
Winnipeg still has bidding wars.

So yes, sales are soft and also not.
And yes, some markets are still hot, and others not.

Both things can be true at once.

Even The Banks Are Pulling Back

TD just reset expectations.

Now they see national home sales down 1.8 percent in 2026, with prices roughly flat to slightly down, and Ontario and BC lagging again.

Meanwhile, other forecasts still call for growth.

So your client sees this:

'Prices will rise.'
'Prices will fall.'

And they freeze.

If the experts don’t agree, what is the average buyer supposed to do?

Exactly.

Nothing.

Inflation Is Not Helping Either

Inflation is sitting just under 2 percent, with core around 2.3 percent.

That sounds stable.

But oil is climbing again.
War is pushing uncertainty.
Fucking war, seriously?!?
Tariffs are still lurking as well... let's not forget that lunacy.

So the Bank of Canada is stuck.

Growth is slowing.
But inflation risk is still there.

That means prime, aka variable rates; not dropping quickly.

At the same time, bond markets have been moving, which means fixed rates can rise quickly.

Delightful.

Let’s Put It All Together

Less population growth.
Falling prices.
Rising inventory.
Mixed signals on rates.
Conflicting headlines everywhere.

This is not one problem.

It is a stack of problems.

It is all the problems, and then some.

This Is The Bigger Shift

For years, the market ran on one simple engine:

More people.

More renters.
More buyers.
More pressure.

That engine has slowed.

And hardly anybody is talking about it directly because the zone is flooded with 32 other things to argue about.

Rates Alone Won’t Fix This

Some people are still waiting for rate cuts like it is 2022.

They believe lower rates might bring back the halcyon days of 2021.

That's not how this works today.

Yes, lower rates would help.
But rates alone are not enough to create major demand in the middle of all these other headwinds.

People create demand.

And right now, there are fewer of them.
And even fewer showing up this year and next.

Then, just as the flow of people is set to return, we may hit the point where today’s standing inventory and under-construction supply has been absorbed.

So people show back up, and there's nothing to buy.

Then what?

That's a problem for later. (or so think the politicians)

So What Does This Mean For You?

You're operating in a thinner market.

Less urgency.
Less pressure.
More hesitation.

Which means:

More conversations per application.
More applications per funded file.
Way more follow-up.
Way more patience.

Our Real Job In 2026

You are not just a broker.

You're a filter.

Your job is to:

Cut through the noise
Explain what matters
Help people make decisions

Not predict.

Not debate headlines.

Just bring clarity.

What Actually Works

Not more data.

Not more stats.

Your clients already have those.

What works is:

Clear language
Short conversations
Direct answers
Consistency

Rep by rep.

Now Let’s Get Real

Yes, Q1 is done.

But are you?

There are still three quarters left in 2026.

And here’s what matters most:

Business is still happening.

Every day.

People are:

Moving
Marrying
Having kids
Breaking up (damn kids)
Switching lenders
Refinancing

Life does not pause for economic uncertainty.
Not for long.

And Here’s The Advantage You May Be Missing

Brand new brokers are entering this business right now.

They don't know it is 'hard.'
They don't know they are 'supposed' to struggle.

So what do they do?

They call people.
They book meetings.
They move deals forward.
They kick (your) ass.

Many of them will absolutely crush it this year.

So again, why not you?

You’ve got years of experience.
A significant database.
Real relationships.

And how often are you actually calling the humans you have already connected with?

In most cases, the answer is simple:

'Not often enough.'

Inside this thinner market, there are still:

Movers
Switchers
Refinancers

They are just harder to see.

But they are there.

Bottom Line

You do not need a perfect market.

You need a process.

50 files this year is still possible.
100?
200 plus?

Yes.
Yes.
Yes.

But you have to go get it.

Work that database.
Have the conversations.
Create momentum.

Yes, the population is down.
Yes, prices are soft.
Yes, inventory is high.
Yes, rates are uncertain.

Good.

That is where professionals win.

Bring a beginner’s mindset, with a veteran’s database.

And go to work.

Rep by rep.

Get after it!

DW