Vancouver Real Estate: Then (2008-2018) vs Now (2026)

From well before my first real estate purchase in 1994, I had a strong conviction about buying property in the Vancouver market.

And I argued with anyone who doubted it.

Pundits from Toronto.
A chicken farmer from the U.S.
Random Twitter accounts.

Almost always people who had never visited the West Coast, let alone spent years understanding what life here is actually like.

I understood something they could not.
Most well-travelled locals did too.

And the ‘well travelled’ part matters. Only when you travel this vast country coast to coast, through all four seasons, does what the GVA offers come into sharper focus. Especially in the 1990s, 2000s, and 2010s.

Decades when the median home price in the GVA moved from roughly $250K, to $600K, to $1M.

That was a very different game than where we stand today.

People come to the Lower Mainland, to Whistler, to Kelowna, for one week, one season, one year.

And then they stay.

That matters.

Lifestyle matters.
Weather matters.
Geography matters.

But numbers matter more.

The Math 15 Years Ago

Around 2010, a detached house in Vancouver with a basement suite cost about $750,000.

The basement suite rented for about $1,750 per month.

With $40,000 down, the mortgage payment was roughly $2,750 per month.

A household earning $100,000 per year could qualify, especially with the suite income included.

After rent from the suite, they were covering about $1,000 per month to live upstairs. Property taxes were relatively low. Heating and cooling costs were moderate, thank you West Coast climate.

And once you owned, you were building equity almost instantly, and often steadily.

That same house today is worth roughly $2 million.

That is why so many people who bought in 2010 are glad they did.

Yes, the gain looks impressive on paper.

But more than that, they have housing security. Ownership delivers that in a way renting never fully can.

The math then worked.

The Math Today

Now let’s run the same example at today’s prices.

Purchase price: $2,000,000
Down payment: about $400,000
Mortgage: $1,600,000

Monthly mortgage payment: roughly $9,000.

The basement suite might rent for $2,250.

That leaves the owner covering about $7,000 per month after rent.

The suite used to cover two thirds of the payment.

Now it covers maybe 15 to 20 percent.

That is a massive shift.

And there is more risk. Much more risk.

A 10 percent price drop on a $2 million home is $200,000.

Transaction costs are higher.
Land transfer tax is higher.
Realtor fees are higher.

The buyer pool at $2 million is far smaller than it was at $750,000.

The margin for error is thin.

So What Am I Saying Today?

If I were on client calls today, how would I advise them?

I am not saying do not buy.

But I do not have the same exuberance. Nowhere near the same urgency. Not even close to the same confidence.

In 1990, 2000, 2010, even 2018, it felt crystal clear. I wrote dozens of blog posts explaining why the market would keep moving. It was never about foreign buyers or speculators. It was always about limited supply and steady demand from regular families.

Residential real estate is still one of the best long-term wealth builders for most Canadians.

Not because it is magic.

Because it forces savings.

You pay down debt every month. Over 20 to 30 years, that builds net worth.

But today, you must buy differently.

Fifteen years ago, you could stretch and still win.

Today, stretching can break you.

Here is what I tell clients now:

Make sure the payment works on one income if needed, and it rarely does.
Be able to survive a 5 to 10 percent price drop.
Plan to hold for 15 years or more, knowing that plans change.
Buy something that strengthens your life, not something that strains it.

If the plan depends on two perfect incomes, a flawless tenant, and stable rates, that is fragile.

Fragile at $2 million is dangerous.

For some people, renting and investing the difference may make sense right now. That is not easy either. Liquidity can be the enemy of discipline.

For others, buying smaller than ego prefers is the smart move.

This is not about ego.

It is about durability.

Vancouver is still a special place. People will continue to come for a visit and end up staying for a lifetime.

But the game has changed.

It is no longer about maximum leverage.

It is about maximum stability.

If you can buy in a way that lets you sleep at night and hold for the long term, ownership still works.

If you cannot, waiting is not failure.

It is strategy.

And that is not a strategy we are used to seeing rewarded in BC, especially when we are talking about a detached house with a basement suite as far west in the Lower Mainland as one can find.

I am less of a cheerleader today.

And perhaps more of a fan of commercial real estate.

But that is another post for another time.

DW